The international crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and tensions in the Red Sea are putting the industrialised world’s energy systems under severe strain, with mixed results. These geostrategic bottlenecks have a profound impact on a significant proportion of the planet’s fossil fuel resources.
But they also highlight the energy choices and strategies being implemented globally by certain countries, including France.
Since January 2026, wholesale electricity prices have risen across Europe, albeit to varying degrees.
The German market is much more affected by rising gas and carbon allowance prices, due to its fleet of gas-fired power stations. In Germany, the average price in the first quarter of 2026 was 90 euros/MWh. Over the same period, in France, it was 20 per cent lower, at 72 euros/MWh. Looking ahead, the France-Germany spread on futures contracts (e.g. 2027 baseload) stands at 36.6 euros/MWh, indicating a sharp rise in our neighbour’s market.
The UK is following a similar trend to Germany, with a heavy reliance on gas, sensitivity to carbon markets, and wholesale prices that are increasingly more volatile
The electricity price market in France remains relatively unaffected by the volatility linked to gas prices and the conflict in the Middle East, due largely to our nuclear power capacity.
France: Europe’s leading electricity producer
France’s energy resilience have a substantial impact beyond its borders. In 2025, the country crossed an unprecedented threshold: 92.3 TWh of electricity exported, thereby exceeding Belgium’s total annual consumption and restoring France to the top of the European exporters’ rankings. This represents a remarkable recovery following a difficult period in 2022–2023, marked by delays in reactor maintenance.
This surplus comes at a crucial time. Electrification targets – particularly in transport – the proliferation of data centres, and efforts to bring industry back to Europe are driving demand growth across the continent.
France’s low-carbon electricity exports have help to replace fossil fuel-based generation in neighbouring grids, thereby reducing both emissions and the cost of imports. France’s nuclear capacity acts as a shared European asset, reducing price volatility in interconnected markets and lowering collective exposure to gas-indexed electricity costs.
An even more international French strategy
National resilience and reliability for Europe represent significant progress, but they are not sufficient on their own to secure an international position. This requires active collaboration with other states that play a role in global markets. We must therefore look to hydrocarbon exporters, leaders in financing the energy transition and emerging powers in the field of clean energy.
The United Arab Emirates occupies a special position in this landscape. It ranks among the world’s leading oil exporters (5th globally) and is expanding its LNG production. It is a leading investor in renewable energy through entities such as Masdar, and operates the Arab world’s first nuclear power station, at Barakah. Few countries combine a major role in the hydrocarbons sector with such a visible commitment to energy diversification.
France made a clear move to expand its relationship with this unique energy power last month by inviting the President of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, to the G7 summit – the first time a Gulf head of state has attended this forum. In-depth bilateral discussions, held on the sidelines of the summit, have reinforced this shift towards an increasingly structured partnership.
France will also have the opportunity to strengthen this relationship during ADIPEC in Abu Dhabi, the world’s largest energy trade fair which attracts more than 200,000 visitors and 2,200 exhibitors. From 2-5 November, the event will look to drive tangible progress on energy security priorities, serving as a platform for world leaders – from both the private sector and public authorities – to collaborate on shared interests and improve the resilience of the global energy system.
This will not only be a chance to develop new projects with the United Arab Emirates, but also to affirm France’s leadership on the international stage by showcasing the technologies and resources that have enabled the country to become a source of energy stability for the whole of Europe.
A concrete step towards the future with the UAE
The invitation to the G7 summit in Evian cemented the special relationship between the two countries, but an effective and long-term partnership in the energy sector requires collaboration in the crucial areas of the future: strengthening energy security, improving system resilience, and driving the transition to low-carbon energy.
France and the United Arab Emirates already share ambitious decarbonisation programmes, and their respective strengths are highly complementary. France has six decades of expertise in the field of civil nuclear power, whilst the United Arab Emirates has demonstrated its commitment to nuclear energy through the construction of the Barakah power station.
In the field of renewable energy, joint ventures are also being set up. A recent agreement between Masdar and TotalEnergies aims to develop clean energy infrastructure in Africa and Asia, while both countries continued to invest heavily in green hydrogen, the industrial-scale production of which will require precisely this combination of low-cost solar resources (abundant in the Gulf) and engineering expertise (a French strength).
Another area for coordinated action lies in the development of LNG. The Final Investment Decision (FID) which was officially announced by TotalEnergies and ADNOC on 21 July, concerning the development of the Um Shaïf offshore gas dome, brings this strategic direction to fruition. The aim is to produce more than 15 million cubic metres of gas per day from 2030, with the potential to double this output.
The way forward will be shaped by our lasting alliances with states that share France’s commitment to these critical energy priorities. The evolution of France’s energy strategy – from national resilience to the role of a continental energy pillar – must be built through such partnerships and strategic alliances capable of withstanding any crisis.
Gérard Vespierre, Geopolitical Analyst & Commentator for La Tribune and IDFM Radio, Founder of the global advisory firm ‘LE MONDE DÉCRYPTÉ’
Source: Translated from La Tribune
