The future of refining: decarbonisation, demand disruption, and strategic direction

The refining industry is navigating a transitional grey zone, facing mounting pressure to decarbonise, shifting fuel demand, and sustained margin pressures. While some operators are advancing with low-carbon fuel production, carbon capture, and process upgrades, others are reassessing timelines in light of policy uncertainty, infrastructure constraints, and fluctuating economic signals. At the same time, deeper structural questions are emerging: how will overcapacity, evolving product demand, and regional competitiveness reshape the long-term role of refining? For many, chemical integration or diversification into low-carbon fuels and materials offer potential paths forward, while others are weighing consolidation, rationalisation, or strategic repositioning. Strategic divergence is intensifying due to uneven access to capital, regulatory divergence between major markets, and broader uncertainties in global trade and investment flows. As a result, refining leaders must balance short-term operational decisions while also reevaluating the viability of existing assets and the investment logic of long-term infrastructure commitments. Finding clarity in this grey zone will be critical to ensuring both resilience and relevance in the years ahead.

Attendee insights:

Gain perspective on how refining strategies are evolving to balance decarbonisation targets with structural market pressures, including overcapacity, shifting demand, and long-term competitiveness.