The way I look at it is that there’s probably going to be a few backstops, and all of them either coming into play one after the other, or even simultaneously.

And I do get the impression from the few comments Secretary Marco Rubio offered that they are perhaps looking at a phased mitigation strategy. So we may not see all the sort of tools or solutions being thrown at the problem in one go, but perhaps in a phased manner. So you do one thing or one or two things and then wait and watch and see how it unfolds.

What I would really like to see is the measures taking into account the potential pain the world is facing, not just the US. What I mean by that is, of course, the US could release stockpiles from its SPR, about 415 million barrels sitting there, quite a thin cushion but nonetheless, it may be enough for the US.

But I think here’s where Washington will need to show its leadership to also put out, hopefully, some measures, that it will either escort the ships or make sure navigation within the Strait of Hormuz and into and out of Gulf reopens safely.

As a second sort of step to de-escalating this, I do believe that a return to diplomacy is the only off ramp, the real sustainable off ramp, because every other contingency measure, including releasing stockpiles, can only see you through for a few weeks.

I am assuming Washington realises that time is of the essence now, and it has to make sure that traffic in the Strait resumes very quickly and, as a stop gap measure, perhaps makes available some stockpiles. Not just from the US SPR, but potentially the IEA releasing its inventories or IEA member countries releasing inventories as well.

It is a hugely worrying matter for the whole world right now because everybody, even if you are as a nation not consuming even a drop of oil that comes out of the Strait of Hormuz, you are exposed to the rally in oil prices and inflationary concerns and, of course, overall economic impact of this energy shock.

But it’s a far bigger concern right now for Asian refiners, for sure, because roughly 80% of the 20-21 million barrels per day of crude that comes, by far emerging Asia is seeing the biggest rate of growth in energy demand. Energy supply, security, affordability are major concerns for these emerging economies. And of course, here we’re talking about China, India, the vast majority of Southeast Asia. They are the most impacted. The governments and the refiners in these countries and other policymakers that are involved are obviously, I would imagine, the most busy.

We’ve heard a lot of contingency measures being discussed and being announced, a lot of reassuring statements come out as well, for instance from Japan that the country has X number of days of reserves so people should not get worried.

Some of the others we’ve heard is perhaps a ban on product exports, Thailand and I think India is also contemplating that. But again, all of these are just contingency measures which will perhaps see them through and maintain some sort of supply stability and prevent panic and pumps running dry for only a certain number of weeks.

At the end of the day I think all the countries, the entire world, is pinning its hopes that Washington knows what to do in order to prevent a major catastrophe in terms of an energy shock.

Call me optimistic, but again, it’s more than just pure optimism. All my mathematics, the calculations, and that includes geopolitical calculations and as I mentioned I think Washington has to be very keenly aware of the responsibility at this point in time to ensure that this doesn’t spiral out of control…all of that put together tells me that we’ll probably see some strong mitigation measures for the time being, and a deescalation after that, which then puts me in the camp of base case scenario; crude going down.

I want to hold my breath for it, and I think we may have a lot of ups and downs between now and then, but I would err on the side of putting out my crystal ball as prices going down, rather than into the 80s and 90s and triple digits. While, again, hypothetically and mathematically, it is not out of the question for a prolonged shutdown of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but that’s not my base case scenario for now.